摘要
为实时准确评估风力发电机组的可靠性,在分析风力发电机组关键部件可靠性的基础上建立了考虑故障相关的风力发电机组Copula可靠度评估模型.首先,运用极大似然估计法确定系统关键部件的故障率函数参数,随后绘制故障相关部件的故障率频数直方图,通过分析频数直方图的特征选取适当类型的Copula函数作为相关部件故障率的联合密度函数;最后,采用非参数估计法确定故障间相关程度参数,建立考虑部件故障相关的风力发电机组系统可靠度模型.与实际统计值对比,结果表明:基于Copula函数建立的模型与实际情况更接近.
In order to evaluate the reliability of wind turbines in a timely and accurate manner, Copula reliability model of wind turbines in the case relative with failure is established based on the reliability analysis of key components of the wind turbine. The failure rate function parameters of key components are calculated by the maximum likelihood estimation method. The frequency histogram of key components is drawn based on the failure rate function. Copula reliability model of wind turbine in the case relative with failure is established by reasonable Copula function combined with the characteristics of frequency histogram. The correlation degrees among dif- ferent failures are figured out by non-parametric estimation method. The results show that the system reliability analysis model based on Copula function is much closer to the actual situation.
作者
韩思远
董海鹰
HAN Si-yuan DONG Hai-ying(School of Automatic and Electrical Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070,China School of New Energy and Power Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanahou 730070, China)
出处
《兰州交通大学学报》
CAS
2016年第6期90-94,共5页
Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金(61663019)
