摘要
本文基于QUAIDS模型对中国的棉花需求弹性进行了估算和分析,结果表明:国产棉花的支出弹性大于进口棉花,但进口棉花之间的支出弹性差异细微;进口棉花的补偿自价格弹性绝对值由大到小依次为印度棉花、美国棉花、澳大利亚棉花和中亚棉花;降低国产棉花的价格会对源自美国、澳大利亚和中亚的棉花进口产生轻微的抑制作用;国产棉"低档品"的属性严重制约了我国棉花补贴政策效应的发挥,棉花品质低下是导致我国当前棉花产业困境的根源之一。最后,阐发了由上述结论得到的政策启示。
Basing on QUAIDS model, we analyze the elasticity of cotton demand in China and get the following conclusions. First, among the different source-countries which provide cotton for China, the Chinese cotton-product sector receives the greatest benefits if China textile industry increases its budget for purchasing raw material; Second, domestic cotton expenditure elasticity is higher than the importing cotton, but there is tiny expenditure elasticity difference among the importing countries, and the absolute value of importing cotton price elasticity from large to small is Indian cotton, American cotton, Australian cotton, and Central Asian cotton. Third, because that importing cotton＇s price elasticity is lower than domestic cotton, low-price strategy could boost the demand for domestic cotton and cause a great shock to foreign cotton. Domestic cotton has the economic quality of inferior good, which constraint the effect of cotton subsidiary policies. The poor cotton quality is one of the key issues which lead the whole cotton industry into trouble. Additionally, we also get some hints from the research results which can be used to explain the low efficiency of current cotton policies.
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"新疆优质棉生产基地综合补贴政策研究"(13XJY017)
国家社会科学基金项目"基于产业安全的新疆棉花产销体系优化研究"(13BJL075)
