摘要
推进"四化"协调发展,需要把握"四化"协调发展的空间分异特征、空间相关性以及动态演进情况。利用安徽省16地市2001—2014年"四化"的相关数据,运用全局主成分分析法、几何平均法与HR模型测算了"四化"综合发展水平和协调发展度,进一步利用非参数核密度估计模型,分析"四化"综合水平和协调度的动态演进情况,最后采用探索性空间数据分析方法,探讨了"四化"协调度的空间相关性。结果显示:安徽省地市的"四化"协调度呈上升趋势,区域范围逐渐扩大,形成了皖江城市区域增长极;信息化、农业现代化增速较快但明显滞后;安徽省地市"四化"协调度有空间相关性,表现出正向集聚性,尤其是皖江城市内部空间溢出效应明显,"四化"协调度形成了良性互动关系,但这种关系有限;"四化"综合水平和协调度有区域差异,且呈扩大之势。研究认为,要利用皖江城市承接产业转移的契机,加快推进信息化建设;继续加大皖江城市带区位优势和集群优势,提高区域内的经济、技术的溢出,发挥皖江城市带领头作用和辐射效应,实现"四化"协调联动发展;加强邻近区域的合作实现双赢,实现区域的均衡发展。
In order to promote the coordinated development of ＂Four Modernizations＂, it is necessary to master its spatial differentiation, spatial correlation and dynamic evolution. Utilizing the statistics of the ＂Four Modernizations＂ of 16 cities in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2014, this paper adopts Global Principal Components Analysis, Geometric Average Method and HR Model to calculate the comprehensive development level and coordination degree of the ＂Four Modernizations＂ in Anhui. The non-parametric kernel density estimation model is further used to analyze the dynamic evolution of the comprehensive development and the coordinated degree of the ＂Four Modernizations＂. Finally, the spatial correlativity of the ＂Four Modernizations＂ Coordination Degree is discussed based on the exploratory spatial data analysis methods. The findings indicate that the coordination degree of the ＂Four Modernizations＂ is in the increase and the regional scope is expanding gradually, which has formed a regional growth pole of Wanjiang City; the informatization and agricultural modernization grow fast but obviously lag behind; the coordination degree of the ＂Four Modernizations＂ has an obvious spatial correlation and has a tendency of aggregation, and the spillover effect of the internal space in Wanjiang cities is obvious especially. The ＂Four Modernizations＂ coordination degrees have formed benign interactions, but it is limited; there are some regional differences in the comprehensive level and coordination degree, and the trend is expanding. Taking advantage of the opportunity of city undertaking industrial transfer in Wanjiang, the information construction should be improved, the location advantage and the clustering advantage of Wanjiang Urban Belt should be enlarged. Meanwhile, regional cooperation should be strengthened and the spillover effect of the regional factors should be emphasized, so as to realize the coordination development of ＂Four Modernizations＂ and to fulfill a win-win situation by e
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第12期28-36,共9页
Economic Geography
基金
安徽高校省级自然科学研究项目(KJ2014A177)
关键词
“四化”协调
全局主成分分析
空间格局
探索性空间数据分析
动态演进
the coordination of the ＂Four Modernizations＂
Global Principal Components Analysis
spatial pattern
exploratory spatial data analysis
dynamic evolution
