摘要
目的了解我国新医改以来基层卫生人力资源配置情况与发展趋势。方法通过《中国经济与社会发展统计数据库》收集相关数据资料,采用描述性统计方法进行分析;利用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测2014—2020年基层卫生人员发展趋势。结果近5年,我国基层卫生人员年增长率(2.76%)低于全国卫生人员年均增长率(5.91%);2013年,基层卫生人员总数达351万人,其中全科医生11.7万人,每千人口基层执业(助理)医师、护士数为0.77和0.42人,医护比为10.55;预计到2020年基层卫生人员总数将达到目前的1.3倍,每千人口基层执业(助理)医师、护士数将达到0.95和0.67人,医护比达到10.71;按目前发展速度,基层卫生人员配备水平要达到同期中等发达国家水平还需要10年时间。结论我国基层卫生人员数量不足、质量偏低、结构不合理、供给速度缓慢,应进一步加强基层卫生人才建设,提高人员配备数量与质量。
Objectives The aim of the present study is to understand the current allocation of primary human resources for health and trend of development after the new reform in our country.Methods The relevant data was collected from the China Economic and Social Development Statistics Database.The method of statistical descriptive was used to analyze the personnel basic situation of the primary health services,and the（1,1）gray system model was used to forecast the situation of human resources for health by 2020.Results The annual growth rate of primary health workers was about 2.76% in the past 5years in our country.This rate was under the level of the nation（5.91%）.The situation of primary human resources for health in China were shown as below：the primary health service institution of health personnel was 351 million people,including 117 000 GP.The medical（assistant）practitioner per thousand people was 0.77 and that of nurse reached 0.42.The ratio between doctors and nurses was 10.55.By 2020,the primary health service institution of health personnel may be 1.3times of the present level.The medical（assistant）practitioner per thousand people may reach 0.94 and that of nurse may reach 0.67.The ratio between doctors and nurses may be 10.71.But if our country wants to catch up with the level of current health personnel development in the middle developed and developed country,at least 10 years will be needed.Conclusions Not only is the quantity of the human resources for health insufficient,but also the quality is low.Moreover,the structure is unreasonable and develops slowly.Some measures should be taken to enhance the construction of the primary human resources,increase the number of health technical person,and improve their ability and quality at the same time.
出处
《中国社会医学杂志》
2016年第6期576-580,共5页
Chinese Journal of Social Medicine
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(13YJA630027)
山西医科大学校级教育教学改革重点项目(2015)
关键词
基层卫生服务
卫生人力资源
预测
灰色模型
Primary health services
Human resources for health
Forecasting
Grey model
