摘要
在中国现代化的长期进程中,资本和劳动力会不可避免的从传统农业部门流向工业及服务业。但是在各种短期的外部冲击下,很容易出现资本和劳动力快速离农化的倾向,从而威胁到国家的粮食安全以及社会稳定。为了探究金融改革尤其是利率管制放开后是否会出现资本的快速离农化的现象,本文构建了一个含有信贷约束异质性的两部门动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),对利率放开后中国的资本流动以及产业结构变化进行了定量分析。研究发现,稳态名义利率上升对工业部门和农业部门将产生显著的异质性冲击,利率每上升一个百分点,会使得工业产出下降1%;在现有耕地红线约束下,利率上升会压低农产品的相对价格,但是农业部门产出下降幅度不大;但是,一旦土地红线管制失控,农业部门资本将大量流出,农业部门会加速萎缩。在未来中国金融市场化的进程中,为保持产业结构的整体性平衡以及国家的粮食安全,必须继续坚持农业用地红线管制,并提高土地的有效抵押率,以遏制中国目前日益严重的资本离农化倾向。
During the long term modernization process in China, capital and labor will inevitably flow from the traditional agricultural sector to industry and service sectors. But too rapid de-agricultural tendencywill threaten the nation's food security and social stability. In order to explore whether the financial reform, especially the liberalization of interest rate,will speed up the departure of capital from the agricultural sector, this paper constructs a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous credit constraints. We found that the rising of interest rate by 1 percentage will lead industrial output to decrease by 1 percentage; in addition, due to the strict control on the exchange of agricultural land, China 's agricultural output will not reduce too much. However, once land red line regulation is out of control, there will be large amount of capital departure from agricultural sector, and agriculture sector will shrink rapidly. In future we need to keep control of the exchange of agricultural land, and increase the effective mortgage rate of land to address the phenomenon of capital departure from agricultural sector.
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第12期47-59,共13页
Journal of Management World
基金
中国人民大学重大规划项目(2015030210)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD023)资助
