摘要
采用1995-2014年我国粗离婚率、商品房平均销售价格、就业率和受教育程度为评价指标的时间序列数据,建立3阶滞后的向量自回归模型,首先通过方差分解探索房价、就业率和受教育程度对离婚率的影响,其次利用聚类分析方法把中国各省市的离婚率分为五类进行分析,最后利用VAR模型预测了我国未来四年的离婚率的情况.
This paper use several data which including rough divorce rate, average sales price of commercial house, employment rate and education level in China from 1995 to 2014, as evaluation indexes to establish time series model with cubic lag. Firstly, base on stable and smooth variables, the consequences of divorce rate affected by housing price, employment and education level through the process of variance decomposition are explored. Secondly, through clustering analysis method, the divorce rate of China＇s provinces and cities is analyzed. Lastly, using VAR model, the divorce rate of our country over the next four years is predicted.
出处
《山东师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2016年第4期25-30,共6页
Journal of Shandong Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(11201116)
江苏省水利科技创新基金资助项目(2011059)
关键词
向量自回归模型
离婚率
方差分解
聚类分析
VAR model
divorce rate
variance decomposition
clustering analysis
