摘要
物流业二氧化碳排放问题是当前我国碳减排工作的重中之重,正确评估各驱动因素在碳排放中的贡献度对于促进行业碳减排意义重大。可基于LMDI分解技术,构建物流业二氧化碳排放变化驱动因素分解分析模型,将物流业碳排放变化驱动因素分解为碳排放因子效应、能源结构效应、能源强度效应、物流产出效应、经济发展效应、人口规模效应等六个方面,并利用2003—2014年我国30个省市区物流业面板数据进行实证分析。研究样本年内各驱动因素动态变动和区域差异情况可以发现,我国物流业二氧化碳排放强度基本呈逐年上升趋势;经济发展效应是物流业二氧化碳排放持续高速增长最主要的驱动因素,物流业产出的提高是抑制二氧化碳排放增长最主要的驱动因素;东部地区能源结构的变化对物流业二氧化碳排放有抑制作用,而中西部地区能源结构需要进一步优化。此外,对各省市区情况的分析表明,广西能源结构效应表现最好,宁夏能源强度效应表现最好,江西物流产出效应表现最好,河北经济发展效应表现最好,四川人口规模效应表现最好。
Carbon emission of logistics sector is the key to reduce carbon emission nowadays and it is important to evaluate the contributions of driving factors to promoting Dioxide emission reduction in this industry. Basing on the LMDI method,the author construed the model of driving factors for logistics sector dioxide emission growth,and these factors were decomposed in six factors which are carbon intensity,energy structure,energy efficiency,logistics output,economic growth and population size. Using provincial panel date from 2003 to 2014,the contributions of factors to carbon emission were analyzed by national,regional and provincial perspectives. The results show that the carbon intensity of logistics sector has been rising in recent years;economic growth is the most important factor to improve carbon emission growth and logistics output is the most important factor to inhibit carbon emission growth. Energy structure inhibits carbon emission growth in East China,while improves carbon emission growth in the Middle and West China;energy structure of Guangxi is the best,energy efficiency effect of Ningxia is the best,logistics output effect of Jiangxi is the best,economic growth effect of Hebe is the best,and population size effect of Sichuan is the best.
出处
《中国流通经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第12期29-39,共11页
China Business and Market
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“新常态下物流园区建设视角的我国西部地区物流业升级研究”(15BGL012)
广西教育厅科研项目“面向东盟的桂北农产品流通体系协同优化研究”(SK13YB119)
桂林航天工业学院科研项目“电子商务驱动下的桂北地区农产品物流信息平台构建研究”(YJ1317)
关键词
物流业
二氧化碳排放
驱动因素
动态变动
区域差异
logistics sector
carbon Emission
driving factors
dynamic changes
regional differences
