摘要
德国是中国在欧洲最大的贸易伙伴,研究中德双边贸易潜力对中德及时调整对外贸易战略、推进"一带一路"建设具有十分重要的理论价值与现实意义。首先利用双边贸易数据和贸易结合度指数分析中德双边贸易现状,继而用2014年37个主要国家的贸易数据,从两国GDP、人均GDP、两国首都之间距离、是否加入WTO和是否加入APEC五方面,运用EViews软件建立贸易引力模型对中德贸易发展潜力进行预测,得出以下结论:中德双边贸易规模较大,增长速度较快,贸易逐渐深化;中德商品结构有较强的互补性;德国对中国的贸易结合度正由弱变强,中国对德国的贸易结合度有减弱趋势;中德双边贸易潜力值在波动中增大,且大于1.2,属于"潜力再造型",贸易潜力已经得到充分发挥,上升空间狭小。
Germany is China＇s largest trading partner in Europe, studying the potential of bilateral trade between China and Germany has an important theoretical value and practical significance to the timely adjustment of the foreign trade strategy as well as to the construction of＂One Belt and One Road＂.First of all, this paper analyses the Sino-German bilateral trade situation via the use of bilateral trade data and trade integration index. Next,it evaluates the potential development of Sino-German bilateral trade by applying EViews to establish the trade gravity model, in which there are five aspects to be considered： GDP of both countries, per capita GDP, the distance between two capitals, and a member of WTO and APEC or not, along with the help of the trade data of 37 major countries in 2014. The conclusions are made： the bilateral trade is gradually deepening on a large scale with a rapid increase; the commodity structure in the two countries is strongly complementary; the degree of trade complementarity is changing in an increasing trend in Germany＇s trade with China while it is deducing in China＇s trade with Germany;Sino-German bilateral trade potential value increases in the process of fluctuation, the figure is greater than 1.2, which belongs to the type of ＂potential re-modeling＂, thus the trade potential has been brought into full play yet rises in a narrow space.
出处
《世界地理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第6期18-27,共10页
World Regional Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(15BRK012)
关键词
贸易
潜力
中国
德国
trade
potential
China
Germany
gravity model
