摘要
考虑煤炭价格的约束,通过非线性回归模型,分别检验了内蒙古煤炭资源发展的"资源诅咒"与"资源尾效"效应。结果显示:内蒙古经济增长与煤炭资源依赖度之间的关系呈倒"U"型,曲线的拐点为煤炭工业产值占GDP的比重达到15.61%,2011年内蒙古已跨越该拐点,处于"资源诅咒"的临界状态;由于"资源尾效"的存在,1990年以来内蒙古经济增长率年均损失0.66个百分点。因此应关注煤炭价格波动引起的产业风险并通过集约化发展道路来释放由于"资源尾效"损失的增长率并规避"资源诅咒"。
Considering the price of coal,we established nonlinear regression model and tested the ＂ resource curse＂ and the ＂ resource drag＂ of coal industry in Inner Mongolia. The results indicate that the relationship between economic growth and the degree of dependence on coal resources in Inner Mongolia was inverted ＂ U＂ type curve; it was the turning point when the ratio of coal industry production value to GDP was 15. 61%,and that has crossed in 2011 in Inner Mongolia and was in the critical state of ＂ resource curse＂. Due to the ＂ resource drag＂,the average rate of economic growth has been reduced by 0. 66% per year compared to the potential growth rate since 1990. Accordingly,we should pay attention to industry risk caused by the fluctuation of coal price and take the intensive model of economic development to make up for the loss of growth rate because of the ＂ resource drag＂ and to avoid the ＂ resource curse＂.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第11期24-29,共6页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71171035)资助
关键词
煤炭资源
资源诅咒
资源尾效
检验
价格约束
coal resource
resource curse
resource drag
test
price constraint
