摘要
为了建立不同区域、不同生育期的水稻稻纵卷叶螟气象等级预测模型,利用103个植保站2000—2014年稻纵卷叶螟虫情资料与气象资料,采用SPSS软件进行相关分析与主成分分析,在逐步回归的基础上建立水稻稻纵卷叶螟不同区域、不同生育期的发生发展气象等级与迁入气象等级预测模型。结果表明:以华南早稻为例,影响早稻移栽分蘖期发生发展的关键因子包括3月下旬累积降水量、4月上旬平均气温、4月下旬平均气温、5月上旬平均气温以及5月上旬最高气温>30℃天数;迁飞的关键因子包括4月平均相对湿度、3月下旬平均气温、3月下旬平均相对湿度以及4月上旬平均日照时数。通过2000—2012年数据回代检验发现,不同水稻种植区移栽分蘖期和抽穗开花期发生发展气象等级平均准确率能达到80%以上,迁入气象等级在85%以上。通过2013—2014年外推预报时,发生发展气象等级平均准确率在80%以上,迁入气象等级在78%以上;当预测站点样本数较少时,预报的准确率普遍下降,西南一季稻下降明显。预测模型可从气象角度对中国水稻稻纵卷叶螟发生发展和迁入进行预测。
The paper aims to establish prediction models of regional meteorological level of rice leaf roller indifferent rice planting areas and different rice growth stages. Based on meteorological and monitoring data ofrice leaf roller during 2000-2014 from 103 observation stations, the authors conducted principal componentanalysis and correlation analysis by stepwise regression method and SPSS, and established prediction modelsof meteorological level for the occurrence and development and the migration of rice leaf roller in different riceplanting areas and different rice growth stages. The results showed that： taking early rice in south China as anexample, the key meteorological factors which affected the occurrence and development of rice leaf roller fromtransplanting to tillering stage were cumulative precipitation in the last ten days of March, average temperaturein the first and last ten days of April, average temperature in the first ten days of May and the number of dayswith the highest temperature greater than 30℃; the key meteorological factors which affected the rice leaf rollermigration were average relative humidity of April, average temperature and average relative humidity in the lastten days of March, and average sunshine hours in the first ten days of April. The validation results of a back forecasting accuracy of the meteorological level of rice leaf roller occurrence and development was above 80% from transplanting to tillering stage and heading to flowering stage in different rice planting areas; meanwhilethat of the migration meteorological level was above 85%. The forecast based on the meteorological data of 2013-2014 showed that the prediction model’s forecasting accuracy of the meteorological level of rice leafroller occurrence and development was still above 80% , yet that of the migration meteorological level wasabove 78% . The forecasting accuracy generally declined with the sample number in the prediction station,especially for single season rice in southwest China. Thus, the prediction
出处
《中国农学通报》
2016年第31期172-178,共7页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项"水稻重大病虫害发生气象条件监测评估和预警技术研究"(GYHY201306053)
关键词
稻纵卷叶螟
区域水稻
生育期
预测模型
rice leaf roller
regional rice
growth stages
prediction model
