摘要
京津冀地区是中国工业最为发达的地区之一和空气污染最严重的地区之一,也是国家控制空气污染的重点区域。空气污染导致的健康影响不仅会增加额外健康支出,还会导致过早死亡和工作时间减少,进而影响宏观经济发展。为了评估该地区PM_(2.5)污染引起的健康问题对宏观经济的影响,以及控制空气污染后带来的经济效益和福利的影响,本研究结合可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium)、温室气体与大气污染物协同效益模型(The Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies-Model,GAINS-Model)和健康影响模型对2020年京津冀地区PM_(2.5)污染引起的健康影响和经济影响进行评估。模型结果表明,2020年Wo Pol情景下PM_(2.5)污染引起的额外健康支出分别为北京44.2亿元、天津27.5亿元、河北97.5亿元。PM_(2.5)污染引起人均每年劳动时间损失分别为北京81.3小时、天津89.6小时、河北73.1小时。而劳动力供给和劳动时间减少所造成GDP和福利损失依次为天津(GDP和福利损失分别为2.79%和8.11%),其次为北京(2.46%和5.10%)、河北(2.15%和3.44%)。如果采取积极的控制空气污染物排放政策,在2020年WPol情景下,PM_(2.5)污染引起的额外健康支出分别为北京8.8亿元、天津4.9亿元、河北2.0亿元,较Wo Pol情景下显著下降。PM_(2.5)污染引起人均劳动时间损失分别下降为北京22.0小时、天津23.2小时、河北22.4小时。空气污染物控制政策给北京、天津和河北带来的经济效益分别相当于GDP的1.75%、2.02%和1.46%。因此,本研究显示控制京津冀地区PM_(2.5)污染带来的经济效益非常可观,其中天津效益最高,其次为北京,河北最低。空气污染物的迁移扩散会影响周边省市的空气质量,因此京津冀地区联合控制空气污染效果更好。
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area is the most air-polluted industrialized region in China despite under intensive air pollution control. Air pollution not only leads to additional health expenditure, but also results in premature death and work time loss, both of which have adverse impacts on the economy. In order to evaluate the health related economic impacts of PM2.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area, we combine a Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model, the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies （GAINS） model and a health impact assessment module. The simulation results show that without pollution control policy in the WoPol scenario, PM2.5 pollution will lead to additional health expenditure of 4.42 billion Yuan in Beijing, 2.75 billion Yuan in Tianjin, and 9.75 billion Yuan in Hebei in 2020, annual and annual per capita work loss hour of 81.3, 89.6, and 73.1 hours in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, respectively. Consequently, the corresponding GDP （and residential welfare） loss due to PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts will be 2.79% （8.11% for welfare） in Tianjin, 2.46% （5.10%） in Beijing and 2.15% （3.44%） in Hebei. By contrast, by controlling PM2.5 pollution in the WPol scenario, the annual per capita work loss hour will reduce to 22.0, 23.2 and 22.4 hours in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in 2020, respectively, leading to GDP benefit of 1.75% in Beijing, 2.02% in Tianjin and 1.46% in Hebei in the same year. Our study suggests that air pollution control has considerable economic benefits in Jing-Jin-Ji area. The benefit is highest in Tianjin, followed by Beijing and Hebei.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第11期19-27,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
日本环境部项目“环境研究及技术发展-环境综合研究”(批准号:S-12-2及2-1402)
