摘要
本文在改进Duranton提出的产业变动指数的基础上,对我国2003-2013年281个地级市的就业数据进行了分行业、分类型与分时间阶段的测量,发现随着时间阶段的推进,我国城市的产业结构变动指数一直保持上升的趋势,城市规模越大,产业结构变动指数越高。此外,不同类型的城市之间在不同时间阶段的就业流入与流出产业中有一定的差异,但差异尚不十分明显,这反映了现阶段我国特大城市并没有从聚集转向全面扩散。因此,建议我国城市在下一步的发展政策中,要注意在提升特大城市新产业成长与产业扩张能力的同时,加快推动城市的产业结构调整,促使特大城市中产业的加工制造生产环节外移,促进其与周边城市之间形成良好的分工与互动,从而实现城市之间协调发展的目标。
This paper constructs the City Industrial Change Index（CICI）, which is an improved approach to Duranton＇s urban Churning Index. Using 19 industrial employment data of 281 cities during 2003-2013, the author calculates the CICIs of each city during 2003-2013, 2003-2006, 2006-2009 and 2009-2013. It is found that all cities have experienced a rising CICI during the whole period, and that the larger the city, the higher the CICI. Moreover, the inflows and outflows of industries are different among cities, but the difference is not significant. Thus the author concludes that Chinese cities are still in an agglomeration process instead of a diffusion process. Therefore, it is suggested that megacities should enhance their expansion capabilities in existing and new industries, accelerate their structural change, and move the production department out of the megacities. In this way coordinated interaction and development among megacities and its neighboring cities can be realized.
出处
《城市观察》
2016年第5期5-16,共12页
Urban Insight
基金
理论粤军项目"城市群导向下的广东区域协调发展战略研究"(LLYJ1304)阶段性成果
国家自然科学基金"转型时期的城市效率与产业结构调整研究"(71273284)阶段性成果
北京大学林毅夫教授主持的国家自然科基金"跨越中等收入陷阱:以沿海地区产业率先转型升级为突破口"(71350002)的一项子课题成果
