摘要
目的评估温州市台风灾害引起的肠道传染病疫情风险,探索优化的层次分析在突发事件公共卫生风险评估中的应用。方法通过专家会商梳理并建立台风灾后肠道传染病疫情风险指标体系,用层次分析法判断指标之间的相对重要性并计算指标权重。随机选择温州市的3个县,收集或调查各指标值,结合权重计算风险分值和校正风险值。结果共建立了4个一级指标和24个二级指标,二级指标层权重以优势菌株、卫生应急能力和应急避难场所保障最高,分别为0.177 2、0.111 3和0.111 3;3个县(市、区)平均校正风险值和最大风险值分别为:苍南县(0.377 2,0.580 1);乐清市(0.399 4,0.466 9);温州市鹿城区(0.213 4,0.398 6)。6种肠道传染病疫情平均校正风险和最大风险值从高到低依次为:其他感染性腹泻(0.466 5,0.579 6);霍乱(0.443 3,0.537 9);细菌性痢疾(0.392 9,0.5367);伤寒和副伤寒(0.282 0,0.442 9);甲型肝炎(0.247 8,0.440 4);戊型肝炎(0.147 3,0.353 4)。结论本研究为台风灾害引起肠道传染病疫情风险评估建立了初步的评估指标体系,并评估出台风灾害对温州市不同地区肠道传染病疫情造成的风险程度和风险因素,能较好地为当地卫生行政管理部门提供决策依据。
Objective To assess the risks of intestinal infectious diseases caused by typhoon disaster in Wenzhou,and to explore the use of optimized analytic hierarchy process（AHP）to assess the risk on the emergency of public health. Methods Index system of risk assessment on intestinal infectious diseases caused by typhoon disasters was constructed through consulting experts and the indexes＇ weights were analyzed by using AHP.Values of the above indexes were collected or investigated within three counties randomly selected in Wenzhou prefecture.The weights and values of the indexes were combined to calculate the risk values and adjusted risk values of intestinal infectious diseases. Results Four primary indexes and 24 secondary indexes of the risk on intestinal infectious diseases caused by typhoon disasters were constructed.Of 24 secondary indexes,three with the highest weights were dominant strains（0.177 2）,response capabilities for health emergency（0.111 3）and supporting capabilities of emergency shelters（0.111 3）,respectively.The adjusted and maximum risk values were 0.377 2and 0.580 1in Cangnan county,0.399 4and 0.466 9in Yueqing county,0.213 4and 0.398 6in Lucheng county.Similarly,the adjusted and maximum risk values were 0.466 5and0.579 6for other infectious diarrhea,0.443 3and 0.537 9for cholera,0.392 9and 0.536 7for bacterial dysentery,0.282 0and 0.442 9for typhoid and paratyphoid,0.247 8and 0.440 4for Hepatitis A,0.147 3and0.353 4for Hepatitis E,respectively. Conclusions This study establishes a preliminary indexes system for risk assessment on the intestinal infectious diseases caused by the typhoon disaster,and identifies the risk factors and computes the risk values for the different intestinal infectious diseases caused by typhoon disaster in the different counties of Wenzhou,which provides advice for local health administrative departments on decision-making.
作者
陈廷瑞
谢海斌
倪成剑
魏晶娇
朱善冰
林上统
李前梁
池海潮
王坚
陈国智
张菊
何凡
CHEN Ting-rui XIE Hai-bin NI Cheng-jian WEI Jing-jiao ZHU Shan-bing LIN Shang-tong LI Qian-liang CHI Hai-chao WANG Jian CHEN Guo-zhi ZHANG Ju HE Fan(Cangnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Cangnan, Zhejiang 325800, Chin)
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
2016年第10期727-732,共6页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
浙江省重点科技创新团队项目(2011R50021)
温州市2014年第二期科技计划项目(R20140070)
关键词
台风灾害
层次分析法
肠道传染病
风险评估
Typhoon disaster
Analytic hierarchy process
Intestinal infectious disease
Risk assessment
