摘要
关于商品住宅价格与土地价格之间的关系,业内一直存在较大争议。通过研究商品住宅价格与土地价格二者之间关系,为制定房地产调控政策,将商品住宅价格控制在合理范围内提供科学依据。以长春市2011年第1季度至2015年第4季度商品住宅价格、土地价格为研究对象,通过Granger因果相关性分析对二者进行检验。结果表明:长春市房地产市场主要以刚需为主,泡沫较低。同时在短期内长春市土地价格对于商品住宅价格的影响十分有限,相反商品住宅价格不断上涨推高了土地价格;长期来看,商品住宅价格与土地价格不存在"相互决定"的情况;同时长春市房地产市场普遍存在开发商过高追求利润、供给不平衡等问题,这也是造成长春市房价持续增高的主要原因。
There is a big argument over the relationship between housing price and land price. In order to further clarify the relationship between housing price and land price,in this the paper,we took commercial housing price from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2011 and land price for research object,and presented the relationships between housing price and land price by Granger causality analysis. The results show that the Changchun city＇s real estate market is mainly rigid demand and low foam; and at the same time,in the short term,the influence of land price on the price of commercial housing is very limited,and contrary commodity prices pushed up landprices. In the long run,commodity prices and land prices are not＂mutual decision＂presence. At the same time,there exist common problems such as that developer＇s pursuiting high profit,the supply imbalance in Changchun city＇s real estate market,which is the main cause of the rising house prices in Changchun city.
出处
《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》
CAS
2016年第10期169-174,184,共7页
Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101376)
吉林省科技发展计划软科学项目(20120628)
关键词
长春市
房价
地价
相关性
GRANGER因果分析
Changchun city
housing price
land price
correlation
Granger causal analysis
