摘要
文章基于1978年-2014年的统计数据,选取金融发展规模、金融发展效率、经济增长与财政扶持四个指标,通过建立VAR系统与VECR系统,采用格兰杰因果检验与脉冲响应分析等方法探讨了财政扶持下西藏金融发展与经济增长的关系。结果显示:西藏金融发展规模、财政扶持与经济增长之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系,相较于财政扶持而言,金融规模发展对经济增长的正向激励作用要更强,而且随着金融规模的扩大,西藏地方经济发展对财政扶持的依赖会逐渐减弱;西藏金融发展规模扩张不具有内生性,需要借助于外部力量来推动;西藏金融业对资源的配置能力相对较弱,其对经济发展的积极作用还没有显现出来。因此,应当采取措施借助外援力量推动西藏金融发展,包括金融规模的扩张与效率的提升,随着金融业的发展,西藏经济发展对财政的依赖就会逐渐降低。
In this paper, based on the statistical data of the years 1978-2014, we selected four indicators includ- ing financial development scale, financial development efficiency, economic growth and financial support, and es- tablished VAR system and VECR system by adopting the method of Granger Causality Test and Impulse Re- sponse Analysis in order to explore the relationship between financial development, economic growth and finan- cial support in Tibet. The results showed： there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between financial development scale, financial support and economic growth in Tibet. Compared with fiscal support, the promoting effect of the scale of financial development to economic growth is stronger. And with the development of financial scale, the dependence of local economic expansion in financial development scale capability of resource allocation in Tibet growth on financial support is becoming less. Tibet has no endogenous , instead it relies on external forces to promote. The financial industry＇s is still relatively weak, and its positive effects on economic growth has not yet been revealed. The local government, therefore, should take measures to promote financial development of Tibet by making use of external forces like the expansion of financial scale and efficiency improvement. With the development of financial industry, the dependence of the economic growth of Tibet on financial support will gradually reduced.
基金
2015年度西藏自治区教育厅青年科研创新性人才支持计划项目"农牧业现代化背景下西藏农牧区经济合作组织研究"(项目号:QC2015-09)
2016年西藏大学珠峰学者人才发展支持计划青年骨干教师项目阶段性成果
关键词
金融发展
经济增长
财政扶持
financial development
economic growth
financial support
