摘要
利用河南省15个气象站点1961—2014年的逐月平均气温、日照时数及降水资料,基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),采用趋势拟合、概率统计、小波分析等方法,分析河南省旱涝灾害时空变化特征。研究结果表明:(1)降水量呈明显减小趋势,近54 a降水量减小率为1.2 mm/a;蒸发量呈增大趋势,多年平均增长率为0.7 mm/a;(2)旱灾发生频率在空间分布上呈现东高西低、北高南低的趋势,而洪涝总体呈现东低西高、北低南高的趋势;(3)河南省整体上呈干旱加剧、洪涝减缓的趋势,安阳、新乡地区干旱加剧趋势最为明显,而西华地区有干旱缓解的趋势;(4)年尺度SPEI的主周期为10 a。
Derived from the average monthly air temperature, sunshine duration and precipitation data sets （ 1961-2014） in 15 meteorological gauges in Henan Province, the temporal and spatial flood-drought characteristics of Henan were analysis zed based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index （SPEI） , by using the methods of trend fitting, statistics and probabilistic analysis and wavelet analysis. The results show that： a） the annual precipitation indicates a reduce trend of 1.2 mm/a, while the annual evaporation increases by 0.7 mm/a; b） the droughts frequency in Henan Province decreases from east to west and from north to south, while the spatial distribution of floods shows an opposite pattern with that of the droughts; c） generally, Henan Province presents a trend of more droughts and less floods in the future. Specially, the risk of droughts increases significantly in Anyang and Xinxiang regions, while the droughts risk is alleviating in Xihua County; d） the annual SPEI apparently displays a main cycle of 10 years.
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2016年第11期39-43,49,共6页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279057
41371048
51190091)
关键词
SPEI
旱涝态势
时空分布
小波分析
河南省
SPEI
droughts and floods tendency
temporal and spatial distribution
wavelet analysis
Henan Province
