摘要
持续性极端降水过程会引发严重的洪涝灾害,是我国主要的灾害性天气之一,其形成机理和预报理论与方法研究受到广泛关注。近年来,针对持续性极端降水的形成机理和预报方法研究取得了一系列进展,主要包括：开展了我国区域性持续性极端降水事件的自动识别方法研究,研制建立了江淮流域持续性极端降水的大尺度环流概念模型,并提取了1-2周的前兆信号;从东亚一太平洋遥相关型（EAP）角度探究其对持续性极端降水的影响机理,并探讨利用EAP对江淮流域持续性极端降水进行预报的可行性。此外,在上述研究的基础上发展了基于关键影响系统的持续性极端降水的物理统计预报方法。
Persistent extreme precipitation（PEP） results in severe floods in China,especially in the YangtzeHuai River Valley（YHRV）,making it one of the main weather disasters in China.There exists an urgent need to enhance understandings on the formation mechanism and developing rules of PEP and extend forecast valid time of the PEP for the scientific decision of government.In recent years,progress has been achieved from related studies on the formation mechanism and forecast method of PEP in the YHRV which has caught wide attention.The method of automatically identifying regional PEP events is established which is named as RePEEI（Regional Persistent Extreme Event Identifier）.Conceptual model is established on the large-scale circulation patterns responsible for PEP events,revealing that concurrent anomalies of the key influential systems are important causes for the occurrence and maintenance of PEP,and precursor signals（about 1 — 2 weeks prior to the onset of PEP） are investigated.Taking East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern（EAP） as a point of penetration,the mechanism of its effects on PEP is explored.Moreover,it indicates that whether the PEP will occur in YHRV is decided by the north-south location of high systems at low latitudes.Schematics for precursor circulation features of typical EAP patterns responsible for persistent extreme precipitation events in the YHRV is established.And corresponding precursor signals are also obtained,the feasibility of predicting PEP on the use of EAP is discussed.Furthermore,based on the key influential systems and precursor signals found above in characteristic large-scale circulation patterns,the physical statistical forecast model for the prediction of PEP is established,which is named as KISAM（Key Influential Systems based Analog Model）,with the idea of parameter optimization method and ensemble mean introduced,using different predictors and cosine angular analog method with weight assigned.However,the forecast of PEP is still a challenge,especially w
作者
翟盘茂
李蕾
周佰铨
陈阳
Zhai Panmao Li Lei Zhou Baiquan Chen Yang(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081)
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第5期631-640,共10页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB417205)
中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费项目(2015Z001)
关键词
江淮流域持续性极端降水
东亚—太平洋遥相关型
前期信号
物理统计预报
persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley
the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern
precursor signals
physical statistical forecast
