摘要
总的来说,公众的通胀预期是一种有限理性的适应性预期,呈现为非均衡与波动性,并具有常态性、适应性、波幅逐渐收窄等特点。在中国,近年来呈现出两个连续型、两个间断型通货膨胀预期陷阱区域。货币政策时间非一致性在中国具有一定程度的客观现实性,年GDP计划增长率与年计划通胀率对通胀预期偏差产生显著的影响,货币政策预期管理目标在引导居民通胀预期的同时,已成为中国通胀预期非均衡波动的主导诱因。
This paper,based on the latest statistics,empirically analyzes the inflation expected bias in China,draws a result that the public＇s adaptive inflation expectation under limited rationality,which leads to the disequilibrium of the inflation expectation,is a normal state and the amplitude narrows. In recent years,two continuous and two interrupted inflation expectation traps have appeared in China. The time inconsistency of monetary policy in China possesses objective reality,so both planed economic growth rate and planed inflation rate exert significant influence on the inflation bias. Besides leading the public to make their inflation expectations,the anticipated targets of monetary policy are expected to become the main cause of the inflation expectation disequilibrium.
作者
黄正新
邓昊赟
HUANG ZhengXin DENG HaoYun(School of Finance, Guangdong University of Financial and Economics, Guangzhou 510320)
出处
《财贸研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期39-47,共9页
Finance and Trade Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"通胀预期陷阱视角下货币政策预期管理研究"(13BJL025)
关键词
通胀预期非均衡
预期偏差
货币政策时间非一致性
货币政策预期管理
inflation expectation disequilibrium
expected bias
time inconsistency of monetary policy
expectation management of monetary policy
