摘要
以全国9个玉米主产区2001-2014年的年度数据为样本,通过倍差法、类倍差法和倾向得分匹配法三种政策绩效评价模型,剔除其他玉米价格波动影响因素,利用面板数据Pool-OLS计量方法,检验玉米临储政策的独立效果。倍差法和类倍差法评价结果表明,在推行玉米临储政策的省份,该政策显著提高了玉米价格,幅度分别0.14元/千克和为0.17元/千克,相比于样本省份的平均价格,该增幅分别为9.26%和11.88%,临储政策的托市效应显著。倾向得分匹配法检验结果显示,临储政策对玉米的托市效果为0.15元/千克,也验证了倍差法和类倍差法结果的稳健性。
Based on the annual data of China's nine corn main producing provinces between 2001 and 2014,this paper employs three performance evaluation models of corn reserve policy by means of DID,Class DID and Propensity Score Matching methods to eliminate other affecting factors on corn prices.In addition,this paper uses panel data Pool-OLS to test the independent effects on corn reserve policy in China.the estimations of DID and Class DID methods show that in the provinces implementing corn reserve policy,this policy significantly raises the prices of corn,with margin of 0.14yuan/kg and 0.17yuan/kg,respectively.Compared with the average price of sampling provinces,the growth rates are 9.26% and 11.88%,respectively,and the supporting effect on corn prices is obvious.The result of PSM reveals that the backup effect of reserve policy on corn prices is 0.15yuan/kg,which verifies the robustness of DID and Class DID methods.
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2016年第6期56-63,144,共8页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目"金融因素对玉米价格波动的传导机制及预测效果研究:基于粮食金融化视角"(71603153)
陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研业务经费专项资金项目"汽油价格对原油价格波动的短期与长期非对称性响应研究"(15SZYB18)
陕西省软科学项目"陕西农业碳排放演化机理及减排策略研究"(2015KRM064)
