摘要
基于非结构化动态建模理论,采集37年间数据样本,建立了无约束VAR模型、协整约束VEC模型分析国防支出与经济增长、居民消费间的运行规律。研究表明:三者间存在长期均衡关系,经济增长和居民消费对国防支出具有显著正向作用,尽管国防支出未对经济增长和居民消费产生"挤出效应",但国防支出总体仍呈现负规模性特征,"溢出效应"不明显,需要进一步加强军民融合,整合军地资源,提高对国防支出的科学预测能力。
Based on the unstructured dynamic modeling theory and data samples collected in 37 years,an unconstrained VAR model and a VEC model are established to analyze operating rules among defense expenditure,economic growth and private consumption.The research shows that there is a long-term balanced relationship among the three factors.Economic growth and private consumption have a significantly positive effect on defense expenditure.Although defense expenditure does not have a ＂crowding-out effect＂ on economic growth and private consumption,overall defense expenditure is still present among the three characteristics and its ＂spillover effect＂ is not obvious.It is necessary to further strengthen the civil-military integration and integration of military resources,and improve scientific prediction capability of defense expenditure.
作者
张侃
刘宝平
黄栋
任鑫
ZHANG Kan LIU Bao-ping HUANG Dong REN Xin(Dept. of Equipment Economy Management, Naval Univ. of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China Graduate School, National Defence Univ., Beijing 100091, China)
出处
《海军工程大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2016年第5期69-74,共6页
Journal of Naval University of Engineering
基金
国家部委基金资助项目(DALS2014-TH-023)
海军工程大学社会科学基金资助项目(HGDSK2015F45)
关键词
向量自回归
误差修正
军民融合
挤出效应
溢出效应
vector auto regression
error correction
civil military integration
crowding-out effect
spillover effect
