摘要
利用1985—2014年地面常规气象观测资料,分析肇庆地区高温日数的时空变化特征,并对肇庆市未来出现的高温强年进行预测。结果表明:(1)肇庆市高温日数在2005年后主要呈现准5年的周期振荡,且在2010年后高温日数有显著增加趋势;(2)高温强年时,同期(7—8月)的副高强度偏强、位置偏南、南海夏季风异常偏弱;(3)基于10年高温强年建立的GM(1,1)模型预测肇庆将可能在2018—2019、2021—2022、2024—2025年期间出现高温强年。
Using conventional surface meteorological observations for 1985 to 2014, we studied the temporal and spatial variations of the number of high-temperature days （NHTD） in the area of Zhaoqing and forecast the years with anomalously more number of high-temperature days in the future. The result is shown as follows. （ 1 ） The NHTD of Zhaoqing mainly showed a periodic oscillation of quasi-five-year after 2005 and increased significantly after 2010. （2） During the years of anomalously more NHTD, the subtropical high was stronger and more to the south, and the summer monsoon of the South China Sea was anomalously weaker, in the simultaneously time （July and August）. （3） As is predicted by a GM（1, 1） model set up based on 10 years of data, Zhaoqing is expected to have years of anomalously more NHTD in 2018-2019, 2021-2022, and 2024-2025.
作者
李文辉
张艺腾
翁佳烽
LI Wen-hui ZHANG Yi-teng WENG Jia-feng(Meteorological Bureau of Zhaoqing City, Zhaoqing 526060 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000)
出处
《广东气象》
2016年第5期1-5,共5页
Guangdong Meteorology
