摘要
以浙江省2007-2014年矿产资源消耗指数统计分析为基础,采用灰色理论模型对矿产资源消耗指数进行比较分析和预测,揭示内在规律。研究表明,灰色系统理论GM(1,1)预测的后验差比值C=0.33,预测模型可靠性很高;浙江省对矿产资源的需求将逐渐回落(但需求总量仍将在高位运行),这种对矿产资源消费需求强度与浙江省处于工业化发展后期阶段大体相适应。通过对浙江省矿产资源需求预测研究,为浙江省第三轮矿产资源规划决策提供科学依据。
On the basis of the statistic analysis on the minerals resources consumption index in Zhejiang Province during 2007~2014, gray system theory model is used to compare, analyze and forecast the minerals resources consumption index, its inherent law is revealed too. The above research result shows that the gray system theory GM(1,1) can effectively predict minerals resources, and the Posteriorvariance-test C=0.33. The demand for minerals resources in Zhejiang Province will gradually subside(but the total demand will continue to run at high levels), minerals resources demand intensity corresponding to Zhejiang Province in the late development stage of industrialization in general. Through forecast and research on Minerals Resources demand, it will provide a scientific basis for the third round of mineral resource planning in Zhejiang Province.
出处
《科技通报》
北大核心
2016年第10期17-20,共4页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
基金
浙江省矿产资源总体规划(2016-2020年)编制(〔省资〕2015001)
关键词
灰色系统理论
灰色预测模型
矿产资源
预测
grey system theory
grey prediction model
minerals resources
forecast
