摘要
使用2004—2013年中国玉米主产区12个省(自治区)166个地级市(区、盟、自治州)的统计数据,分析气候变化及应对策略对玉米产量的影响。研究结果表明,灌溉条件改善和玉米技术进步作为减缓气候变化不利影响的适应性策略对稳定玉米生产具有重要的促进作用。基于灌溉条件、玉米技术进步和气候变化的联合检验结果显示,上述缓解气候变化的应对方法致使中国玉米生产保持相对稳定。然而,作为支撑玉米有效应对干旱的灌溉手段是不断扩张的机井数量,这将增加农业灌溉水资源短缺地区的粮食生产安全风险。未来在平衡粮食生产和环境资源的双重目标时,有必要缩减灌溉水资源负荷过重地区的粮食生产任务。
Statistics data of 166 prefecture-level cities in 12 provinces which are the Chinese main maize producing areas from2004—2013 is used to analyze the effect and coping strategies about climate change on Chinese maize production. The results shows that improving irrigation conditions and maize technical innovation have an important promoting effect as adaptive strategies on mitigating the adverse effects of climate change and stabilizing corn production. Combined test results which are based on irrigation conditions,technological advances and climate change show that the situation of Chinese maize production had been kept stable from 2004—2013. However,we should clearly understand that the number of wells is a support to deal with drought corn irrigation effectively. Over-exploitation of groundwater resources will increase the vulnerability of ecological environment and security risks in north and northwest regions suffering agricultural irrigation water shortage. In balancing the both objectives of future food production and environmental resources,it is necessary to reduce the food production task of the area with heavy load of irrigation water resources.
出处
《科技与经济》
2016年第5期45-49,共5页
Science & Technology and Economy
基金
农业部软科学研究项目--"多重约束环境对我国玉米数量安全的影响评估"(项目编号:2014102
项目负责人:周宏)成果之一
中央高校科研业务费南京农业大学人文社科基金产经岗位培育项目--"中国水稻(粮食作物)产业发展政策研究"(项目编号:SKGW2014002
项目负责人:周宏)成果之一
关键词
玉米产量
气候变化
技术进步
灌溉
应对策略
maize-yield
climate change
technological changes
Irrigation
coping strategies
