摘要
TPP要求缔约方完全减除关税,由此必然引发TPP成员国内部的贸易创造和其余地区的贸易转移,进而改变占全球贸易额近一半的机电产品的贸易流向和流量。本文评估TPP形成对中国机电产品出口的潜在影响。文章首先采用出口相似度指数分析中国与TPP及相关国家机电产品出口的竞争关系,提出TPP影响中国机电产品出口的四个研究假说,然后基于GTAP-CGE模型检测TPP形成、韩国加入、中国也加入三种情形下中国各类机电产品出口额的变化。研究发现:(1)TPP形成将使中国机电产品出口遭受负面冲击,主要体现为HS72类和HS90类,而日本的同类产品出口则增加,贸易转移效应显著;(2)若韩国加入TPP,贸易转移效应将蔓延至韩国,HS90类尤甚;(3)若中国、韩国都加入TPP,中国机电产品出口将享受巨额的出口增幅,对美国出口增幅最大。中、日、韩、美四国在各类机电产品出口上激烈的竞争关系是造成上述结果的主要原因。
This paper assesses the potential influences of TPP on China＇ s mechanical and electrical exports. By adopting Export Similarity Index to analyze export competitive relationship among China and TPP members＇ mechanical and electrical products, four hypothesizes are proposed. Then, based on GTAP-CGE model and three different situations TPP, South Korea as a member of TPP, China also a members of TPP, this paper calculates China＇ s mechanical and electrical products＇ export respectively. Results show that： （1） China＇ s mechani- cal and electrical exports will suffer from a negative shock, mainly category HS72 ＆ HS90. And, as a result of trade diversion, the export will grow for Ja- pan＇ s case. （2） If Korea becomes a member of TPP, trade diversion effect will spread to Korea, especially in category HS90. （3）If China is also a member of TPP, China will enjoy enormous export growth, and export to the U.S. will in- crease most. The main reason for above results is the severe competition among China, Japan, Korea and the U.S. regarding exports of mechanical and electrical products.
作者
许培源
朱金芸
XU Pei-yuan ZHU Jin-yun
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第9期71-83,共13页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社科基金项目"TPP新规则对我国对外直接投资布局的影响研究"(16BJY122)资助
