摘要
生育率降低和平均预期寿命延长会加深人口老龄化程度,它们通过储蓄和投资渠道影响资产价格和资本积累。本文引入凸调整成本的资本调整技术,在新古典增长模型基础上通过内生化资产价格建立了不同社会保障制度安排下的世代交叠(OLG)一般均衡模型。研究表明,生育率降低会减少当期国民储蓄和投资,从而使资产价格下降、资本积累上升;但在下一个时期,资产价格和资本积累存在均值回归过程。平均预期寿命延长会提高当期资产价格;但在长期,它与社会保障税、养老金替代率以及个人账户挪用比例都没有影响资产价格。生育率降低和平均预期寿命延长同时期发生会使长期资产价格产生通缩效应。此外,平均预期寿命延长会提高当期资本积累;在长期,当资本产出弹性较小时,长期资本积累会随着平均预期寿命的延长而增加;当资本产出弹性较大时,它会随着平均预期寿命的延长而呈现非对称的倒"U"型变化。本文的结论在政策含义上表明,在需求管理的同时应加强供给侧改革,提高全要素生产率是应对资产价格通缩和增加长期资本积累的有效方式。
Declining fertility and rising life expectancy can deepen the degree of population aging. They can affect asset price and capital accumulation through saving and investment. This paper introduces capital adjustment technology with convex adjustment costs, and develops an overlapping generations model in which the price of asset is determined endogenously under different social security system arrangements on the basis of neoclassical growth model. The study shows that declining fertility decreases national saving and investment and thus causes a decrease in the price of asset, and increases capital accumulation. The price of asset and capital stock are mean-reverting, so the initial decrease of asset price and increase of capital stock are followed by an increase and a decrease, respectively. However, the rising life expectancy can increase the price of asset in the current period, and also has a mean-reverting process. In addition, life expectancy, social security taxes, pension substitution rate and appropriation of personal accounts do not affect the price of asset in the long run. They cause long term asset price to have a deflation effect when both of them occur at the same period. In the short run, the rising life expectancy will increase the capital accumulation in the current period. In the long run, when the capital output elasticity is smaller, the capital accumulation in the long run is increasing with the rising life expectancy; when the capital output elasticity is bigger, there exists an asymmetric reverse-U relationship between them. The conclusion has important policy implications, we should also strengthen the supply-side reform while the economy is developing in the demand-side management, and it is an effective way to deal with the deflation effect of the capital price and increase the capital accumulation through improving total factor productivity （TFP） in the long run.
作者
耿志祥
孙祁祥
郑伟
Geng Zhixiang Sun Qixiang and Zheng Wei(School of Economics, Peking Universit)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第9期29-43,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD042)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(14JZD027)
国家社科基金青年项目(11CJY108)的支持
关键词
人口老龄化
资本调整技术
社会保障
资产价格
资本积累
Population Aging
Capital Adjustment Technology
Social Security
Asset Price
Capital Accumulation
