摘要
从科学问题、研究方案以及基于水泥生产线抽样调查所获得的测算与评估结果三个方面对中国科学院战略性先导碳专项课题"水泥生产过程排放"的研究工作进行了系统性的总结.自2011年下半年至2015年,完成了全国22个省区水泥生产线的野外抽样,取得了359条生产线的活动水平数据,并采用"生产线-省市区-国家"三级集成方案,分区域、分工艺、分规模构建了中国水泥生产碳排放因子核算体系.通过对工艺排放因子、燃料排放因子、电力排放因子、直接排放因子及分工艺的熟料、水泥综合排放因子共10个指标的分析测算,判断得到国内外研究对中国水泥生产碳排放因子的估计与计算结果存在一定偏差:其中,工艺排放和水泥熟料比上分别存在1.4%~3.4%和12%~32%的高估;燃料排放则存在-27.63%^+6.25%的偏差.分析了全部采样测试的排放因子不确定性并探讨了国际上对中国水泥生产碳排放测算结果高估的原因,总结了目前国内外测算方法中存在的问题及解决方案,提出了水泥生产未来的节能潜力及方向,并认为未来工作重点将是跟踪既有调查企业的动态变化,反演中国水泥生产的历史碳排放,同时开展与国际相关机构的沟通与交流,确保中国的研究成果更具科学性和准确性,从而为中国参与气候变化谈判提供科学依据,并使国家在环境外交中掌握更大的主动权.
This article summarized the latest progress of a sub-project, Carbon Emission of Cement Production in China, undertaken by Chinese Academy of Sciences. This project seeks to establish a domestic CO2 emissions factor calculation system for China＇s cement production. The Chinese-specific CO2 emissions factor of cement production will provide a benchmark to support China＇s international negotiation on climate change and a baseline for setting emission reduction target. Considering the diversities in different production lines, a sampling survey of cement production lines covering various production technologies and scales has been carried out since the second half of 2011. A two-stage stratified random sampling with unequal probability is devised to ensure the sampling precision. By the end of 2015, 22 provinces have been sampled and a CO2 emission factor inventory database consisting of 359 cement production lines has been established. The emission factor of cement production can be divided as three components： raw material calcination emission, fuel combustion emission and indirect emission. At present, international organizations like Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC） and World Business Council for Sustainable Development（WDCSD） and a number of developed countries have promulgated a series of calculation methods for CO2 emissions of cement production with a default emissions factor. To provide a CO2 emissions factor inventory better reflects the de facto situation of Chinese cement production, a bottom-up integration from factory-level to national level is proposed. Bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulation are exploited to provide the confidence intervals of the CO2 emission factors of different production stages. Since the Monte Carlo simulation requires parameter distribution of inputs, the probabilistic distribution function of CO2 emission factors for each production stage is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation and bootstrap simulation. Combining the probabilistic distribution of v
出处
《科学通报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第26期2926-2938,共13页
Chinese Science Bulletin
基金
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05010400)资助
关键词
水泥生产
二氧化碳
排放因子
抽样调查
测算方法
cement production
CO2
carbon emission factor
sample survey
calculation method
