摘要
为了明确日本松干蚧在东北地区可能扩散区域,根据日本松干蚧生长发育所需的气象条件,利用关键期气候资料,采用几何平均方法建立了气候适宜度经验公式,分析了日本松干蚧在东北未感染地区的气候适宜度,对日本松干蚧在东北地区传播扩散的风险进行了定量化评估。结果表明:黑龙江西南部、中南部、东部及吉林境内日本松干蚧入侵的可能性最大;进入绥化一带气象条件也较为适宜,日本松干蚧也可在此地生存繁衍并蔓延;该虫进一步扩散到黑河北部、伊春北部等地其生存会受到一定的威胁,气象条件异常寒冷的冬天会造成越冬若虫的大量死亡,被积雪覆盖的幸存下来的松干蚧会继续繁衍生息,或由外地传入的松干蚧继续生存发展,日本松干蚧生存北界将会止于此区域;大兴安岭地区北部冬季气候寒冷,夏季积温不足,气象条件不适宜日本松干蚧生存,日本松干蚧继续北扩蔓延进入大兴安岭地区的可能性很小。
The paper aims to clarify the possible spread region of Matsucoccus matsumurae in northeast China.According to the meteorological conditions needed for the growth and development of Matsucoccus matsumurae,using climatic data of critical period and the geometric method, the authors established the empirical formulaof climatic suitability and analyzed the climatic suitability of Matsucoccus matsumurae in uninfected areas innortheast China, and the dispersal risk of Matsucoccus matsumurae in this region was estimated quantitatively.The results showed that： the southwest, south central and east of Heilongjiang and the territory of Jilin wereareas that could be infected easily; the meteorological conditions were more appropriate in Suihua and Matsucoccus matsumurae could survive and multiply and spread; if the insect spread further into the north ofHeihe and north of Yichun, its survival might be threatened sometimes; the cold weather conditions in winterwould cause the mass deaths of overwintering nymph, while snow-covered surviving Matsucoccus matsumuraewould continue to thrive, and immigrated Matsucoccus matsumurae could grow and develop in summer; theseareas would be north survival border of Matsucoccus matsumurae; the climate of north of Daxinganling was coldin winter and lack of accumulated temperature in summer, which was not suitable for Matsucoccus matsumuraesurvival; the possibility was very small that Matsucoccus matsumurae grew and continued to spread northwardinto Daxinganling.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2016年第26期114-119,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金"气候变化对日本松干蚧扩散影响研究"(批准号:41175100)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项"森林草原病虫害气象预报与灾损评估技术"(GYHY200906028)
关键词
气候适宜度
日本松干蚧
扩散
风险评估
东北地区
climatic suitability
Matsucoccus matsumurae
dispersal
risk evaluation
northeast China
