摘要
大气生态环境的恶化已经对全球气候安全造成严重胁迫,产业经济的去碳化发展刻不容缓。以物流产业为例,借助PSR模型构建物流碳排压力下大气生态安全综合评价指标体系,通过投影寻踪模型对2005—2014年中国内地30省域大气生态安全值核算分析,并针对PSR模型指标探索大气生态安全可行路径,结果显示:在经济发展不平衡的前提下,2014年中国内地30省域大气生态安全水平呈现总体良好、区域间相差较大现状;在投影寻踪模型分析下,"状态"对各省域物流碳排压力下大气生态安全的影响最大,其次是"响应",最后是"压力";物流碳排与大气生态环境之间协调发展的主要障碍为物流产业及大气生态安全水平低下现状,其次为人类生态保护的响应措施落后。
Atmospheric deterioration of ecological environment has caused severe stress on the global climate security, the development of industrial economy decarbonisation imperatively. In this paper, the logistics industry as an example, via PSR model building comprehensive evaluation index system of atmospheric ecological security under logistics carbon emissions pressure, calculating and analysis by projection pursuit model during 2005-2014 years ecological security value of 30 provincial in China's Mainland, and in the end exploration the atmosphere ecological security feasible path. The results showed that： （1） Under the premise of uneven economic development, atmosphere ecological security level of 30 mainland provincial quite different in 2014, but the overall in good condition; （2） Based on the projection pursuit model,“ state” is the most significant effect on ecological security,followed by the “ response”, and final is “ pressure”;（3）TThe largest obstacle to the coordination between logistics carbon emissions and atmospheric ecological environment is low ecological security situation and the level of logistics industry, followed by the backward human ecological protection measures.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第9期49-55,共7页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家自然科学基金项目<小样本非等距灰色预测模型建模及其应用研究>(71301061)
江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目<物流业碳排复合系统协同路径仿生研究--基于Lotka-Volterra模型>(SJLX15_0560)
关键词
PSR模型
投影寻踪聚类评价
物流碳排压力
大气生态安全
障碍因子
PSR model
projection pursuit clustering evaluation
logistics carbon emission pressure
atmospheric ecological security
obstacle indicator
