摘要
宁夏作为典型能源输出区,2010年人均碳排居中国首位,面临严峻碳减排压力。计算1985-2013年碳排总量,引入中国其它地区城市化率和宁夏电热产业区位商等对STIRPAT模型扩展,用偏最小二乘法(PLS)和Path分析法估计各驱动力直接和间接影响系数。研究结果:宁夏1985-2013年碳排量由1017.48万t增长到18314.95万t,年均增长10.48%,人均碳排量由2.45t/人增长到28.00t/人,年均增长8.76%;中国其它地区人口城市化通过人均GDP和电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业对宁夏碳排产生显著间接影响;宁夏碳排对总人口、单位GDP能耗、人均GDP、中国其它地区人口城市化率、宁夏人口城市化率和宁夏电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业区位商弹性系数分别为1.12%、-0.17%、0.25%、0.64%、0.80%和0.76%。
As one typical energy output region, Ningxia took first in the per capita carbon emission in China in 2010. Ningxia would face severe CO2 emission reduction pressure. Decomposition analysis was used to measure Ningxiag CO2 emission amount （CEA）. By introducing other region＇s urbanization in China and Ningxia＇ s energy output, the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology （STIRPAT＇） model was extended. Partial Least Squares regression （PLS） was employed to get coefficients. Path model was used to measure the driver＇ s direct and indirect effects. It was found that Ningxia＇ s CEA increased from 10.17 million tons（mr） in 1985 to 183.15 mt in 2013, with an annual increase of 10.48%, and the per capita carbon emission in 2013 reached 28.00t per capita, with an annual increase of 8.76% ; Other region＇ s urbanization in China had evidently indirect effects on Ningxia＇ s CEA, especially through Gross Domestic Product （GDP） per capita and production and supply of electric power, hot power and water industry; the population, energy intensity per GDP, GDP per capita, other region＇ s urbanization in China, Ningxiag urbanization and production and supply of electric power, hot power and water elastic coefficients of CEA were respectively 1.12%, -0.17%, 0. 25% , 0.64% . 0.80% and 0.76%.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第7期42-46,共5页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41271556)资助
