摘要
根据航空飞行安全的气象保障规范和临界条件,探讨了我国区域内影响飞机起降的气象要素的区域特征;在气象要素影响分析的基础上,建立飞机起降安全的气象要素评价指标;采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各评价指标的权重,利用模糊综合评价方法构建了飞机起降气象安全风险的评价标准和评价体系,运用区间梯形隶属度函数来计算评估单元各指标针对各风险等级的隶属度,最后根据最大隶属度原则作出风险评估与区划。分析表明,我国北方地区航空安全气象环境较南方地区好,南方出现航空飞行不利影响的恶劣气象条件的频率显著高于北方;我国航空安全气象风险由北至南逐渐递增,尤以东部沿海地区、福建和江西东北部地区、贵州东部及湖南地区的风险等级最高。
According to the mode and critical condition of aviation meteorological safety support, the regional features of the meteorological factors affecting the taking off and landing phases of aircraft over China region were discussed. Based on the analysis on the meteorological influencing factors, aviation me- teorological risk assessment index during taking off and landing phases was established. The Analytic Hi- erarchy Process （AHP） was used to determine the weights of risk assessment index. The fuzzy comprehen- sive evaluation helped construct evaluation standards and evaluation system of aviation safety. Further- more, it is available to calculate the membership degree for each risk level about every evaluation unit based on trapezoidal membership functions. Finally, the risk assessment and regionalization based on the maximum membership principle were made. Results show that the weather conditions of taking off and landing phases in most parts of northern China were better than that in the south, and the frequency of adverse weather conditions making a practical implication in the South China was significantly higher than that in the North coastal areas, the Final evaluation showed the safety risks increase gradually from north to south. Eastern Northeast Fujian and Jiangxi provinces, the Hunan province and the eastern region of Guizhou province were at the highest risk level.
出处
《气象科学》
北大核心
2016年第4期466-473,共8页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41075070,41276008,41375002)
关键词
航空安全
气象要素
影响因子
评价指标
风险评估
Aviation safety
Meteorological elements
Influencing factor
Evaluation index
Risk assessment
