摘要
本文建立了一个两部门DSGE模型,模型中引入房地产部门,分析了在企业自由进入情况下,房价波动如何影响新企业的进入以及社会福利。研究发现,外部冲击导致的房价波动通过改变企业进入成本,对企业的进入决策产生影响,进而改变商品的多样性和总产出,对社会福利造成影响。不同冲击对社会福利的影响大小与房价对企业进入成本的传递程度和房地产部门占经济中的比重直接相关,特别是当房价对企业进入成本的传递程度较大时,非房地产部门的技术进步冲击不但没有带来非房地产部门企业数目的增加,反而是加剧了非房地产部门的垄断程度,降低了社会福利。最后,本文通过1998到2010年中国35个大中城市面板数据的实证研究对理论模型中房价影响企业进入行为的机制进行了验证。
This paper builds a two - sector DSGE model with firm entry, studying the impact of housing price fluctuation on the resource allocation and social welfare. The simulation results show that the increase of housing price induced by exogenous shocks will raise the threshold of finn entry and reduce the number of new - entry finns, which will have a negative effect on the varieties of goods and output, decreasing the social welfare. The degree of social welfare change is up to the weight of house sector and the elasticity of entry cost to housing price. It＇s worthy attention that when the elasticity of entry cost to housing price is high enough, a beneficial technology shock will even increase the monopolies and reduce the social welfare. In the end, the empirical analysis, using the panel data of 35 major cities in China from 1998 to 2010, verifies the existence of the mechanism that housing price impacts the firm entry decision in the channel of entry cost.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第8期51-67,共17页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303267)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金课题新教师类项目(20130016120005)
