摘要
本文构建了反映我国"土地财政"特征的动态随机一般均衡模型,以研究"土地财政"与房地产市场波动之间的关系。研究表明,高房价是造成高地价的重要原因;住房偏好冲击和货币政策冲击能够解释37%的房价波动;普通商品生产部门技术冲击以及家庭住房偏好冲击引起的投机性住房需求是我国财政收入过度波动的主要原因。较低的房地产投机交易成本强化了地方政府对"土地"的依赖,为抑制房价过快上涨对经济结构的不利影响,在增加投机性住房交易成本的同时,应推进财税体制改革并通过对住房需求的严格监管实现地方政府财政收入的稳定增长。
Based on a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(NK-DSGE)including land monopoly supply and land price shocks,we study relationship between real estate industry and financial volatility under the 'land finance'.Research shows that Land price shocks do not affect the price fluctuations;Housing preference shocks and monetary policy shocks can explain37% of the price fluctuations of real estate in China;Besides,ordinary commodity production technology shocks and family housing preference shocks are the most important two external factors for China's fiscal revenue excessive volatility.According to formal conclusion,this paper argues that local governments encourage the speculation in the real estate market through various policies and measures,to curb excessive increases in prices adverse effects to the economic structure,government should promote the transactions cost of speculative real estate,meanwhile,they should reform the fiscal and taxation system,take strict supervision for the stable development of the real estate industry and local government revenue.
出处
《中南财经政法大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期30-41,53,共13页
Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目"面向金融安全的房地产市场风险识别及预警研究"(71373201)
关键词
房地产
土地财政
动态随机一般均衡模型
分税制
Real Estate
Land Finance
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
System of Tax Distribution
