摘要
旅游业是推动第三产业增长的重要动力,第三产业各部门的发展又为旅游业的发展提供强大支撑。文章借助Eviews软件检验云南省旅游业发展与第三产业增长的长期均衡与Granger因果关系,并进行脉冲响应与回归分析。结果表明:第三产业与国内旅游业存在长期均衡关系,且存在第三产业到国内旅游业的单向Granger因果关系;脉冲响应函数曲线表明,云南省国内旅游业与第三产业之间存在正向响应效应;回归分析表明,第三产业中的交通运输、仓储及邮政业对旅游业发展带动作用最大,金融业对旅游业促进作用较大,而批发零售业对旅游业发展影响较小。
Tourism development is an important force of driving to promote the tertiary industry growth, and the development of tertiary industry provides strong support for the tourism. The article uses Eviews software to test the long - term interaction and Granger causality between tourism development and tertiary industry growth in Yunnan province, and makes impulse response func-tion analysis and regression analysis. The results shows that there is a long - term stable cointegration relation between domestic tourism development and tertiary industry growth, and there are Granger causalities from the tertiary industry to the domestic tourism ; impulse response function analysis shows that there is a positive interaction response between domestic tourism development and tertiary industry growth; the regression analysis shows that the transportation, storage and postal industry in the tertiary industry play a leading role in the development of tourism , which is also promoted by the financial industry, however, the wholesale and retail industry has less impact on the tourism development.
出处
《旅游研究》
2016年第5期36-42,共7页
Tourism Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目"西部民族地区旅游业发展推进新型城镇化的动力机制研究"(14XJC790010)
