摘要
在PERT网中,通常将具有持续时间最长的线路作为关键线路.从任务完成概率的角度看,这是一种很乐观的态度.但在定下作战决心时,指挥员不会盲目乐观,而会充分考虑可能出现的各种不利因素.从给予任务完成最薄弱环节更多关注的角度出发,分析了PERT网随机优先的概念,描述了任务完成概率的最小上边界,提出了随机优先关键线路的计算方法.结论是:应根据指挥员对完成任务的不同态度,选择更加合适的关键线路确定方法,定下作战决心.
The wire lasted for the longest time in PERT net is usually taken as the key wire.It is regarded as an optimistic attitude in view of mission accomplishing probability.But the commanders will considerer fully about all the possible unfavorable factors before making operational decisions instead of unrealistically optimism.In view of much more concern on the weakest link in mission accomplishing,the conception of random precedence in PERT net is analyzed,the minimum upper bounder of mission accomplishing probability is described,the key wire calculating method of random precedence is put forward.And the conclusion is,on making operational decisions,the commanders should select the more proper defining method of key wire based on the different attitudes on mission accomplishing.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2016年第15期251-257,共7页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
关键词
任务清单
随机优先
关键线路
作战决心
mission list
random precedence
key wire
operational decision
