摘要
为进一步提高稻纵卷叶螟预报准确率,在2006年稻纵卷叶螟预测模型研究的基础上,对贵州省余庆县1985~2014年的调查资料进行回归分析,分别建立了第三代幼虫发生程度预测模型：y=10.81406＋0.00220x_1＋0.00324x_2-0.42334x3±Sy/12=0.6741;第四代幼虫发生程度预测模型：y=1.39738＋0.00032x_1＋0.01049x_2±Sy/12=0.5931;第三代低龄幼虫盛发期预测回归模型：y=12.7994＋0.5491x±Sy/x=1.6653;第四代的低龄幼虫盛发期预测模型：y=12.7994＋0.5491x±Sy/x=1.6653。应用预测模型对稻纵卷叶螟幼虫发生程度和低龄幼虫盛发期进行预报,方法简便,预测结果准确。
In order to enhance the prediction accuracy of outbreak in the medium-short period and occurrence degree of C. medinali, some regression models were established by analyzing the occurrence information of C. medinali from Yuqing county of Guizhou province during 1985-2014 on the basis of the study in 2006. The expected re- gression models for the occurrence degree of the third larva and forth larva are： y= 10.81406＋0.00220x1 ＋0.00324x2 -0.42334x3±Sy/12 = 0.6741 and y = 1.39738＋0.00032x1 ＋0.01049x2 ＋＋-Sy/12 = 0.5931 respectively. The expected regressive models for the outbreak period of the third larva with young age and forth larva with young age are ： y= 12.7994 ＋0.5491x±Sy/x = 1.6653 and y= 12.7994＋0.5491x±Sy/x = 1.6653 separately. The forecast of occurrence degree and outbreak period of C. medinali by the regression models is of accuracy and convenience.
出处
《贵州大学学报（自然科学版）》
2016年第2期40-44,共5页
Journal of Guizhou University:Natural Sciences
基金
贵州省重大专项资助(黔科合重大专项[2012]6012号)
关键词
稻纵卷叶螟
发生程度
发生期
预测模型
Cnaphalocrocis medinalis
occurrence degree
outbreak period
prediction model
