摘要
为了更加全面准确地评估配电变压器的运行状态,基于多时段信息融合构建配电变压器运行状态评估模型。建立状态评估函数对定量指标进行评估;综合2类集值统计专家估价法,引入专家评估信任因子对定性指标进行评估;综合相似度聚类分析和模糊层次分析法进行评估指标的最优权重分配;基于多变量灰色预测模型和改进证据理论融合多时段状态信息以评判配变的综合运行状态。基于该评估模型对54台配变进行状态评估,通过比较每台配变的状态评估结果和其实际运行工况,得到该模型的评估准确率约达96.296%,验证了该评估模型的可行性,为配变状态评估提供了一种新的思路。
In order to evaluate the operating condition of the distribution transformer more accurately, we establish a condition assessment model of the distribution transformer based on the multiperiod information fusion. Quantitative in dexes are evaluated with the reasonable condition evaluation function; qualitative indexes are evaluated by synthesizing two kinds of expert investigation method based on the setvalued statistics and importing the expert evaluating trust factor; optimal weights of the model are decided with the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the similarity clustering analysis; the improved evidence theory and the multivariate grey prediction model are adopted to fuse multiperiod condition information of the distribution information, and then the assessing result of the transformer is obtained according to the multistage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The condition of 54 distribution transformers is evaluated with the assess ment model, and the assessment accuracy of the model is about 96.296% by comparing the condition assessment result and the actual operation condition of every transformer. The feasibility of the model proposed is verified by actual test data so that the model can provide a new thought for condition assessment of the distribution transformer.
出处
《高电压技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第7期2054-2062,共9页
High Voltage Engineering
基金
山东省科技发展计划(2014GGH204002)~~
关键词
状态评估函数
专家评估信任因子
相似度聚类分析
改进证据理论
多时段
condition evaluation function
expert evaluating trust factor
similarity clustering analysis
improved evi dence theory
multiperiod
