摘要
一个国家或地区的物流发展水平与当地的社会物流总费用占GDP的比重息息相关,理论上,这一比例不宜过高,如何采取有效措施来降低该比例已成为当务之急。本文基于多元回归模型,运用Eviews软件对可能影响该比例的四大因素进行了回归分析及ADF、AEG协整检验,研究结果表明:产业结构对社会物流总费用占GDP比重的影响最为显著;物流行业就业人数的影响作用次之;而物流基础设施投资、经济发展水平对该比例的影响并不显著。在此基础上,分析了回归结果的经济原因并联系实际情况给出了相应的可行性政策建议。
The logistics development level of a country or region is closely related to the local total social logistics costs accounted for the proportion of GDP. In theory, the ratio should＇t be too high. And how to take effective measures to reduce the proportion has become a top priority. The paper conducts the multiple regression model and make the regression analysis and ADF, AEG cointegration test for four possible factors by using Eviews software. The research results show that, the industrial structure is the most significant factor; the employment in the logistics industry takes the second place; the logistics infrastructure investment and the level of economic development are not the obvious influence factors. On this basis, the economic reasons of the regression results are analyzed, and the feasible policy suggestions are given with practice.
出处
《工业技术经济》
北大核心
2016年第7期121-129,共9页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(项目编号:NCET-12-0963)
教育部人文社会科学青年基金(项目编号:13YJC630157)
关键词
社会物流总费用
GDP
多元回归
影响因素
政策建议
the total social logistics costs
GDP
multiple regression
impact factors
policy suggestions
