摘要
在舱室模型SEITINR(易感者-潜伏期-治疗/未治疗患者-痊愈者)基础上,且疫情得到成功控制的条件下,研究了药物覆盖率与人均分发药物量之间的关系.采用实际疫情数据以及相关文献估算参数,进行数值拟合.结果发现,在药物覆盖率达到68%,人均分发药物量达8剂时,可以成功控制流感爆发.这可为资金条件、抗病毒药物储存量等因素制约下,以有效控制疫情为前提,用抗病毒药物治疗流感提供一个最优疾控方案,以便在流感疫情爆发初期及早治疗,减少不必要的财物浪费.
With the compartmental model SEITINR （susceptible people-latent period-treated/untreated patients-recovered people） and the successful control of epidemic, the relationship between the drug coverage and per capita amount of distri- bution of drugs was studied. By estimating the parameters of actual epidemic data and related literature and doing numeri- cal fitting, it shows that when the drug coverage reached 68%, per capita distribute drugs are up to 8 doses, it is easy to control the flu outbreak successfully. That presents an effective disease control program with influenza antiviral treatment even under restricted factors, such as funding conditions and antiviral stockpiles, on the premise of effective control of epi- demic situation, thus provides early treatment to reduce the waste of unnecessary possessions.
出处
《宜宾学院学报》
2016年第6期82-85,共4页
Journal of Yibin University
关键词
舱室模型
流感
抗病毒药物
compartmental model
influenza
antiviral treatment
