摘要
利用1983-2013年31个省市的面板数据，分别采用面板门限模型和空间计量模型进行了实证分析。分析结果显示，农业信贷配给对农民消费的间接效应具有非线性和空间相关性的双重特征。非线性特征主要表现为农业信贷配给对农民消费的负向双重门限效应，且低收入区间农业信贷配给对农民消费的抑制作用高于高收入区间；空间相关性特征则体现为农业信贷配给对农民消费的负向空间溢出效应。农村金融增量改革可以拉动本地区及其周边地区的农民消费。
Based on the mechanism of the indirect effect of agricultural credit rationing on consumption of rural residents, this paper explains the dual characters of the indirect effect, and furthermore, gives an empirical analysis of the panel data of 31 provinces during 1983 -2013 by using panel threshold model and spatial panel model. The results show that agricultural credit rationing~ impact on consumption of rural residents presents dual charac- teristics：Nonlinear and spatial correlation. The nonlinear correlation refers to the negative double threshold effect, and the inhibitory effect of agricultural credit rationing on consump- tion of rural residents for low - income group is higher than that of high - income group. Spatial correlation refers to the negative spatial spillover effect. The paper suggests that in- cremental reform of rural finance can stimulate the consumption of rural residents in the re- gion and its surrounding area.
出处
《金融经济学研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第3期38-50,共13页
Financial Economics Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71203001)
安徽工业大学研究生创新研究基金项目(2014128)
关键词
农业信贷配给
农民消费
间接效应
面板门限
动态空间模型
agricultural credit rationing
consumption of rural residents
indirecteffects
panel threshold
dynamic spatial model
