摘要
为研究煤尘爆炸最大压力随点火延迟时间的变化规律,采用20 L球形爆炸装置进行试验,通过采集不同点火延迟时间下煤尘爆炸最大压力数据,建立最大压力-点火延迟时间的自回归移动平均(ARIMA)时间序列模型。采用差分法消除最大压力数据的上升趋势性。通过计算自相关、偏相关系数与赤池信息量准则(AIC)函数值、贝叶斯信息量准则(BIC)函数值,确定模型自回归、移动平均阶数,并采用最小二乘法估计模型参数。运用模型预测20组不同点火延迟时间下的最大压力。结果表明,用ARIMA时间序列模型预测的最佳点火延迟时间与实测情况基本吻合,同时实现了对最大压力数据波动特征的合理分析。
For the sake of studying interrelationship between maxium pressure of coal dust explosion（Pm） and ignition delay time（the interval between ignition and formation of coal dust cloud）,experiments were carried out with a piece of 20 L spherical coal dust explosion apparatus. On the basis of data obtained,an autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） time series model was built for the Pm. The difference method was used to eliminate the upward trend of Pm data. By calculating values of AIC and BIC,autoregression order and moving average order were got. Model parameters were estimated by using of the least squares method. The model was used for predicting 20 groups of Pm under different t. The result shows that the ARIMA time series model is effective and has a relatively high degree of precision,and that reasonable analysis of fluctuation characteristics of Pm can be done with the model.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第5期30-34,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(51204089
51274115)
辽宁省教育厅科研项目(L2014131)
关键词
煤尘爆炸
最大压力
点火延迟时间
时间序列分析
20
L球
coal dust explosion
maximum pressure
ignition delay time
time series analysis
20 L sphere
