摘要
2015年在西北太平洋和南海共有27个台风活动,其中有6个在中国沿海登陆。与多年情况相比较,台风登陆时强度偏大,造成的损失偏重,但人员伤亡偏轻。2015年,中央气象台台风综合路径预报误差为近年来最小,其中24h误差为66km;针对台风灾害的防御,全年共发布台风预警102次,上报决策服务材料近百期,中国气象局先后启动了5次重大气象灾害(台风)防御应急响应,有效地减轻了台风灾害造成的损失。台风导致人员伤亡的原因主要有两个方面:一是由台风暴雨引发的山洪、地质灾害导致的人员伤亡;二是由台风螺旋云带中激发出的龙卷风导致的人员伤亡。因此,为进一步减少灾害损失,建议:深化气象部门和国土资源部门的合作,加强暴雨诱发山洪、地质灾害气象预报预警业务和监测能力,提升山洪、地质灾害气象预警水平;加强与发达国家的科技合作和科研力量的投入,以提高龙卷风等小尺度灾害性天气系统的监测和预警能力,为灾害防御提供时间上的保障。
There were 27 typhoon activities in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea during 2015, including 6 typhoon landfalls in China. Compared with the past years, the intensity of landing typhoon was too large, resulting in the loss of heavy, but the casualties were lighter. In 2015, the error about typhoon integrated path prediction of the National Meteorological Center had been the minimum in recent years, which was 66 kilometers every 24 hours; In view of the typhoon defense, the center issued 102typhoon warnings and submitted nearly a hundred decision-making materials throughout the year, and China Meteorological Administration started 5 major meteorological disasters defense emergency responses. It had effectively mitigated the losses caused by the typhoon disaster. In the casualties caused by the typhoon, two main reasons were summed up： First, flash floods and geological disasters caused by the typhoon torrential rain; second, the tornado stimulated by the typhoon spiral cloud band. Therefore, we should further strengthen cooperation between the meteorological department and the land and resources department, strengthen the flash floods and geological disasters forecasting and warning services, enhance the warning level about flash floods and geological disaster; strengthen scientific cooperation with developed countries and research investment, in order to improve the small scale weather system of monitoring and early warning ability, providing guarantee time for disaster prevention.
出处
《防灾科技学院学报》
2016年第2期87-94,共8页
Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention
基金
2015年国家气象中心决策气象服务创新团队项目
关键词
台风
预报
服务效果
地质灾害
龙卷风
typhoon
forecasting
service effectiveness
geological disaster
tornado
