摘要
文章以已有研究成果及研究现状为基础,就合理违约概率的确定、担保比例、可用比例及KMV模型的适用度及精确度等方面进行驳斥及商榷,借此点明通过修正的KMV模型预测确定市政债券的合理规模时应该注意的几个问题,最后得出市政债券在发行初期的合理规模应该保持在GDP的1%左右,最多不应该超过GDP的1.5%的结论。
This paper is based on the status of existing research results. It discuss the determination on the reasonable probability of default, and refute the proportions of the guarantee, and discuss the applicability and precision of KMV model, then to pay a attention to the problems through the modified KMV model to predict the reasonable scale of municipal bonds. In the end,it consider that the reasonable scale of municipal bonds at the beginning of the issue should be kept at around 1% of GDP, no more than 1.5% mostly.
出处
《改革与战略》
北大核心
2016年第7期98-101,共4页
Reformation & Strategy
基金
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目"江苏城市举债融资的经济效应与风险预警机制研究"(基金编号:2015SJB136)
关键词
市政债券
合理规模
商榷
municipal bonds
reasonable scale
deliberation
