摘要
论文创新提出了基于RSM/CMAQ臭氧污染动态源贡献分析方法,并以佛山市顺德区2014年10月为例,分析了不同区域的人为可控源NO_x和VOCs减排情景下(10%、70%和100%)对本地O_3浓度变化的量化贡献.研究结果表明顺德区O_3的人为可控比例约43%,且受区域排放影响非常明显,主导上风向广州排放源总贡献(14%)超过顺德本地贡献(7%).VOCs的减排可有效削减顺德区O_3浓度,当减排力度较小时(<12%),若仅控制区域NO_x排放将导致顺德区O_3浓度上升,随着减排力度的加大,区域NO_x的削减贡献会反超VOCs.RSM/CMAQ动态源贡献分析方法可为空气质量管理提供科学决策依据.
This paper describes a dynamic source contribution analysis method of ozone based on Response Surface Model（ RSM）. The case of Shunde District of Foshan City in Guangdong,China in October 2014 was used to analyze the contributions of pollutant emissions to ambient O_3 concentrations at different NOxand VOCs emission control scenarios of 10%,70% and 100% reductions in multiple regions. The results showed that the controllableproportion of anthropogenic O_3 in Shunde was about 43%,and it was dominated by regional transported pollutants. Guangzhou,as the main upwind city in October 2014,contributed 14% by regional transport and was larger than the local contribution of Shunde（ 7%）. The emission control of VOCs could reduce O_3 concentration of Shunde effectively. O_3 concentration could increase when the NOxemission control was less than 12% without VOCs emission control. However,O_3 concentration would decrease with co-control on NOxand VOCs emissions. The contribution of NOxcontrol could be even larger than that of VOCs control under the higher emissions control strength. The dynamic source contribution analysis based on RSM can provide an effective and scientific support for air quality management of O_3.
出处
《环境科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第7期2297-2304,共8页
Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae
基金
空气质量管理费效及达标规划评估技术及示范研究(No.2014A050503019)
顺德区大气复合污染机理研究及质量达标规划编制项目(No.x2hj D8143160)
工业点源排放大气汞沉降外场观测及分布特征研究(No.2014J4100089)
珠三角典型工业点源汞排放沉降数值模拟及观测(No.x2hj B2150020)
广东省环境风险防控与应急处置工程技术研究中心(No.b2152120)~~
关键词
臭氧
曲面响应模型
空气质量模型
动态源贡献分析
空气质量管理
ozone
response surface model
air quality model
dynamic source contribution analysis
air quality management
