摘要
利用1974～2013年广州市各短历时（5,10,20,30,60,90 min和120 min）年最大降雨序列资料,采用线性倾向法、累积距平法、滑动平均法和Spearman秩次检验法判断序列的变化趋势及其显著性;用R/S分析法预测未来一段时间内降雨变化趋势;用Mann-Kendall法、有序聚类分析法、滑动F检验法和滑动T检验法分析得到各短历时的降雨序列的突变情况。研究结果表明：广州市年最大5 min和10 min降雨序列发生了变异,表现出显著上升的趋势,且在1987年发生突变;广州市降雨愈来愈趋于集中,短历时降雨强度表现出增大的趋势。
According to the short- duration（ 5,10,20,30,60,90 min and 120min） annual maximum rainfall data at Guangzhou from 1974 to 2013,by using the linear trend method,cumulative pitch average method,moving average method and Spearman rank inspection method,the trend of time series and its significance were identified; the variation trend of the rainfall in a future period is predicted by using R / S method; the mutations of the rainfall series in every short- duration were analyzed by the Mann- Kendall method,orderly clustering analysis method,the sliding F test and moving t- test method. The results show that： the maximum of 5min and 10 min rainfall sequences is mutated,showing a significant rising trend and the mutation occurrs in 1987; the rainfall becomes more concentrated and the short- duration rainfall intensity shows an increasing trend.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2016年第12期1-5,22,共6页
Yangtze River
关键词
短历时暴雨
变异诊断
突变
周期
广州市
short-duration rainfall
variation identification
mutation
periodicity
Guangzhou City
