摘要
利用DEA-Malmquist模型考察了我国30个省(市、区)1994—2012年的低碳农业发展水平,并对其空间差异进行了比较分析。在此基础上,运用Tobit模型考察了影响其变化的主要机理。研究结果表明:(1)我国东、中部地区的一些省份低碳农业发展水平相对较高,而西部地区的省份则普遍偏低;结合30个地区低碳农业发展水平的数值差异,可将其划分为高速、快速、中速、慢速和下降等5个组别。(2)在推进低碳农业发展上,农业前沿技术发挥了更为重要的作用,而技术效率改善所起到的作用相对较小,对技术效率分解可知,规模效率对低碳农业发展的贡献程度要高于纯技术效率。(3)在惠农型"中央一号"文件全面出台之前,我国低碳农业发展主要受农村基础教育水平、经济发展水平、自然灾害等因素影响;而在此之后,则主要受农业公共投资、农业开放度、自然灾害等因素影响。分区域来看,无论是同一阶段还是不同阶段,影响我国东部、中部和西部地区低碳农业发展的因素都同中有异。
This paper uses DEA-Malmquist model to investigate the level of low-carbon agricultural development of 30 provinces in China,and conducted a comparative analysis of the spatial differences.Tobit model is then used to explore the main factors influencing the changes.The result shows that:1)The provinces where the level of low-carbon agricultural development is high were mainly distributed in eastern and central China,while the western provinces show low level in the development.Based on the absolute differences of respective low-carbon agricultural productivity,30 provinces can be categorized into such five groups as very fast,fast,average,slow and slowing down in terms of their speed in action.2)In promoting low-carbon agriculture,agricultural frontier technology plays a more important role while the technical efficiency improvement is relatively insignificant.The technical efficiency decomposition shows that scale efficiency is more important than pure technical efficiency.3)Before the No.1Central Document with farmer-benefiting policy was released,the development of low-carbon agriculture in the country was mainly affected by the level of primary education and economic development,natural disasters and other factors;After that,it was mainly influenced by agricultural public investment,opening degree of agriculture,natural disasters and others.For different areas,whether in the same stage or not,the factors affecting the development of low carbon agriculture in eastern,central and western regions are different.
出处
《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第4期33-44,156,共12页
Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“气候框架公约下农业碳排放的增长机理及减排政策研究”(71273105)
国家社会科学基金重点项目“新常态下农业支持政策执行情况评估与执行机制优化研究”(15AJY014)
中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目“中国农业净碳汇核算及其价值实现机制研究”(2016M590735)
