摘要
基于中国改进型三环路压水堆(CPR1000)核电厂最佳估算热工水力系统分析程序(CATHARE GB)大破口失水事故(LBLOCA)分析模型,采用多种不确定性量化分析方法量化LBLOCA分析结果的不确定性,并针对不同方法对输入参数的处理、分析过程和输出结果的处理3个方面进行比较。结果表明,敏感性分析方法由于存在人为的保守性,所以其计算结果最保守,传统的参数统计方法、欧文因子法和Bootstrap方法需进行输出结果的正态性检验,而Wilks方法不需要进行正态性检验且分析结果更加现实。
In this paper, we introduce many kinds of uncertainty quantification methods used in realistic LBLOCA analysis, and quantify the uncertainties of the output of large break loss of coolant accident based on the best estimate thermal hydraulic system code CATHARE GB LBLOCA model of CPR1000 nuclear power plant. Furthermore, we compare and identify the differences in many areas such as the process of input and output parameters and analysis procedure, and recognize that the sensitivity study method is most conservative because of the existing of the artificial conservative assumption, and the normal distribution test is required in the conventional parameter statistic method, Owen factor method and Bootstrap method, but not in Wilks method, and Wilks method can achieve more realistic results.
出处
《核动力工程》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第3期75-79,共5页
Nuclear Power Engineering
