摘要
采用季节调整和H-P滤波的时间序列分解方法,依据国家发展和改革委员会2006年以来的农产品价格监测月度加权蔬菜价格数据,分析了北京市蔬菜批发市场、农贸市场和超市的价格波动特征,得出:北京市批发市场、农贸市场和超市蔬菜价格联动性比较好,直接反映了市场整合程度较高:2013年以来北京市批发市场、农贸市场和超市的蔬菜价格不规则波动序列逐步变弱,与极端天气减少有关;季节因子对批发市场和超市的蔬菜价格影响略有增强,对农贸市场蔬菜价格影响变化不大;北京市批发市场、农贸市场和超市的蔬菜价格整体趋势略有不同,批发市场和超市的蔬菜价格都是先升后降,超市蔬菜出现价格拐点早于批发市场,而农贸市场蔬菜价格则在到达拐点后保持平稳但略有上升的态势;在周期方面,北京市批发市场、农贸市场和超市的蔬菜价格变动周期基本一致。
Using seasonal adjustment and time-series decomposition methods, the authors analyzed the monthly average price of vegetables in Beijing since 2006, which was collected by the National Development and Reform Commission （NDRC）, to infer the fluctuation characteristics of vegetables prices of wholesale market, wet market and supermarket. Conclusions were as follows： the linkage among vegetables prices of wholesale market, wet market and supermarket was significant, which was a direct reflection of the high degree of market integration in Beijing; since 2013, irregular fluctuations in Beijing＇s vegetables prices of wholesale market, wet market and supermarket were becoming weaker due to fewer extreme weather; seasonal factor＇s influence on the prices of wholesale market and supermarket was gradually increased, while its impact on wet market vegetable price was almost unchanged; the overall price trend of wholesale market, wet market and supermarket was slightly different, vegetables prices of wholesale market and supermarket were first to increase and then decreased, while the wet market vegetable price was holding steady with a slightly upward trend after reaching the turning point; in cycle aspect, the same cycle of price change. vegetable prices in three kinds of markets had basically
出处
《农业展望》
2016年第4期24-30,共7页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
北京市农林科学院创新能力建设专项"基于‘互联网+'的京津冀现代农业协同创新研究"
中国工程院咨询研究课题"‘互联网+现代农业'行动计划发展战略研究"
关键词
时间序列分解
蔬菜价格
波动
北京
time series decomposition
vegetable price
fluctuation
Beijing
