摘要
本文利用因素增广向量自回归模型(FAVAR),从金融自由化视角分析货币政策对物价波动的影响,发现货币供应量、贷款总量的上升对物价上涨具有重要作用,存款总量增长抑制了物价上涨;贷款利率的提高对物价上升作用明显,存款利率上升对物价有抑制作用;股票市场交易额与股票价格指数对物价的波动冲击作用明显;经常、资本项目流入对物价具有正向效应,经常、资本项目流出对物价有降低作用;名义汇率对物价作用方向不明显,实际有效汇率提高具有降低物价的作用;消费者预期、消费者信心指数对物价具有正向作用,消费者满意指数提高降低了物价。
This article analyses the effects of monetary policy on prices from the perspective of financial liberalization by using Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model（ FAVAR）. The following conclusions are found： money supply and total loan urge prices rising,but total deposits growth curbs prices growing; interest rate of loans brings prices increasing,but interest rate of deposits lowers prices in monetary credit market deepening; stock trading value and price index make drastic fluctuation on prices characterized; inflows of current and capital account have positive effect on prices,otherwise outflows of current and capital account have negative effect on prices; the influence of nominal exchange rate on prices is not obvious,but real effective exchange rate reduces prices; consumer expectation index and consumer confidence index roll up prices,yet customer satisfaction index gets prices down.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第6期59-66,共8页
Commercial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目
项目编号:14BJY00
教育部人文社科规划项目
项目编号:09YJA790162
