摘要
采用面板回归模型定量测算我国省域、城市群、城市等不同空间尺度三大产业结构变动对经济增长的影响,结果表明:1在全国层面上,1978—2012年我国第一产业对经济增长的影响呈现下降态势,第二产业对经济增长的影响小于第三产业。其中,第三产业对东部省份经济总量变化的影响最大,中西部省份以第二产业变动为主,西部省份对第一产业的依赖度更高。22000—2012年,无论是城市群尺度还是城市尺度,产业结构动态变化对经济增长呈现相似的空间差异,总体上经济总量变化主要是由于第二产业和第三产业引起的,且第二产业稍高于第三产业。在地区差异上,第一产业引起的GDP总量变化,中部大于东、西部,而第二产业、第三产业的区域差异不明显。
The economic growth is mainly supported by the development of the industry, and the industrial structure change will have significant influences on the economic growth. This paper focus on China＇s three major industrial structure impact on economic growth by the individual fixed effect model both in provincial, mega- regional and municipal scale. The results show that： 1）1978-2012, the impact of China＇s first industry on the economic growth is in a downward trend, the impact of the second industry on economic growth is less than the impact of the third industry. The total economic output of the eastern provinces is mainly caused by the changes of the third industries, and the first and two industries have little contribution. And the western provinces＇ economic growth are dominated by the second industry, the western provinces are more dependent on the first industry than the middle provinces, and their third industry development is lag behind. 2）from 2000 to 2012, the total amount of China＇s economy growth both in megaregional and municipal scale, is mainly caused by the second industry and the third industry, and the second industry contribution is slightly higher than the third industry. The GDP of the eastern, central and western cities are mainly caused by the volume change of the second industry, and the GDP caused by the second industry of the three areas are not much different. The GDP changes of middle areas caused by the first industry is more than the eastern and Western. The study could provide significant implications for industrial planning at different scales.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期100-106,共7页
Economic Geography
关键词
产业结构变动
经济增长
影响
个体固定效应模型
中国
adjustment of industrial structure
economic growth
influence
individual fixed effect model
China
