摘要
为进一步了解旬阳烤烟生产与气象因子的关系,为当地烤烟生产提供科学指导,采用贝尔(Baier)产量模式和灰色关联度分析方法研究烤烟不同生育期内气象因子(气温)与气象产量的关系,结果发现,随着生产和技术水平的提高,烤烟气象产量在年际间出现减少趋势,倾向率为-9.32 kg(hm^2·a)。气象产量与各生育阶段平均气温的关联度并不完全一致,采烤期(0.4210)>苗床期(0.4069)>大田期(0.4045)>移栽期(0.3843)。当苗床期日最低气温在4~6℃时,可基本满足初生叶片和根系的生长需求,当日最低气温≤0℃时,烤烟发生冻害的几率较大。移栽期和大田期处于春夏季节,当移栽期日平均气温在19~21℃,大田期日平均气温在24~26℃时,可以满足烟叶生长需要。采烤期内气象产量与气温因子的关联度有先减小后增大的转折过程,当日平均气温≥29℃,日最高气温≥35℃时,高温强光不利于上部烟叶生长,产量降低。实际生产中应重点关注生育前期低温霜冻和后期高温强光对烤烟生长的影响,当预报可能出现超过阈值的天气时,应人为控制烤烟生长环境条件,减轻气象灾害。
In order to understand the relationship between flue-cured tobacco production and meteorological factors in Xunyang,and provide scientific guidance for local flue-cured tobacco production,Baier yield model and Grey Relational Analysis were employed to research the relationship between meteorological yield of flue-cured tobacco and meteorological factors in different growth period.Results showed that,meteorological yield of flue-cured tobacco reduced with a tendency rate of-9.32 kg/（ha.a）.The correlation degree between meteorological yield of flue-cured tobacco and average temperature in every growth period was different,while baking period（0.4210） 〉seedbed period（0.4069）〉 field growing period（0.4045） transplanting period（0.3843）.Daily minimum temperature at 4~6 ℃ could basically meet the growing demand of primary leaf and root,but when it fell to 0 ℃or less,flue-cured tobacco was at greater risk of freezing injury.Transplanting period and field growing period were in the spring and summer,meteorological factors could meet the needs of leaf growth when the average daily temperature was 19~21 ℃ in transplanting period,and 24~26 ℃ in field growing period.There was a turning process in baking period,which decreased first then increased.When the average daily temperature rose to 29 ℃.or more,and the daily maximum temperature rose to 35 ℃ or more,high temperature and strong light were bad for upper leaves growth and reduced the production.In the actual production,we should focus on the frost caused by low temperature in early growing period and adverse effects caused by high temperature and strong light in later growing period.When the forecast values surpassed the threshold,growth environmental conditions of fluecured tobacco can be humanly controlled to mitigate meteorological disasters.
出处
《农业网络信息》
2016年第5期72-76,共5页
Agriculture Network Information
基金
陕西省气象局科技创新基金计划项目"安康旬阳烤烟区低(高)温致灾指标方法研究"(编号:2015M-19)
关键词
烤烟
灰色关联度
贝尔产量模式
气象产量
flue-cured tobacco
Grey Relational Analysis
Baier yield model
meteorological yield
